Chapter 51

"However... we must first discuss those within this land who lack the proper fear and reverence for their king. Twice they have rebuffed the vassals I sent as heralds. If the seed of rebellion that threatens our new lands takes root... then we must pull it from the earth by force. Wales. It is time for them to see the strength of a true king. We will invade in the coming spring. Steel yourselves, men."

- King Sweyn

Miscalculation (誤算) is the 51st chapter of the Vinland Saga series.

Overview
King Sweyn, now King over England, holds a feast in Jorvik to distribute riches and lands to the leaders of Denmark. Thorfinn refuses to join and eats outside instead. King Sweyn grants Canute England's richest and most fertile land, Mercia, and asks Thorkell to assist his son. Some of the chieftains take this gesture to mean that the rumours of King Sweyn attempting to assassinate Canute were unfounded, while others believe that he would've had to grant Canute something favourable if they were true. King Sweyn then announces that they must quell the seed of rebellion in the land that has twice rebuffed his heralds: they will invade Wales come spring. Askeladd is shocked at the news; Floki notices this and tells King Sweyn there might be some weakness of Askeladd's to be found there. Askeladd assumes Wales' invasion is a coincidence, as King Sweyn could not have known he was connected to it. Nevertheless, he struggles to quickly think of a way to prevent the invasion without turning Wales into a battleground. When Thorkell asks him why the Welsh helped a Dane like Askeladd when he was coming after him, Askeladd tells him the truth of his connection to the land, though he asks him not to tell anyone. Askeladd is called forth and granted fifty pounds of silver for rescuing Prince Canute. King Sweyn tells Askeladd he looks forward to his valour in their upcoming invasion of Wales. Askeladd takes the comment to mean King Sweyn indeed found out he was connected to Wales after all. To King Sweyn and Canute's shock, Askeladd boldly asks the king if a conquest of Wales is truly the wisest decision.

Summary
Inside King Sweyn's hall in Jorvik, food and drink are being set up for the feast where riches and lands will be distributed. Chieftains start to arrive and discuss the attempt on Prince Canute's life the day prior. Some theorize that King Sweyn, now elderly, needed to settle on a rightful successor and prefers Prince Harald. Others insist it is only a rumour, while some start reconsidering their allegiance. One man notes that Canute having Thorkell on his side makes up for the loss of Ragnar, but another man counters that Thorkell is too much for Canute to handle. A bald man adds that Canute also has another new face on his side, a man nicknamed the "Ashen lad," but the man he is speaking to has never heard of him. A man tells everyone to rise for the entrance of the king and the prince. King Sweyn enters with Floki, armed guards and several men, while Canute has Thorkell, Askeladd and Gunnar at his side. Canute asks Askeladd what happened to Thorfinn, and Askeladd tells him he's outside and was pouting about not wanting to "be in here." Thorfinn, still noticeably bruised from his last duel with Askeladd, eats outside without a care for those in the hall. Askeladd tells Canute that he has no need to worry about his safety at the feast, as no one would dare draw a blade in that company. King Sweyn thanks the leaders of Denmark for joining him and says that his being crowned King over England was only possible through their efforts. He adds that the return of his son Canute and of Thorkell is cause for celebration and welcomes Canute home, making a show of hugging him and saying his heart is glad. Out of their new lands, King Sweyn gives Canute Mercia and asks Thorkell to aid him. Thorkell airily agrees, more interested in the good food he is eating. The watching chieftains whisper among themselves, as Mercia is the richest and most fertile region of England. Some see it as proof the rumours were not based in fact, while others think they're not discredited, as King Sweyn would have no choice but to go that route if the rumours were true. King Sweyn continues on to say that the chieftains will all be rewarded according to their successes, and that there will also be more spoils to be won in Ireland. Askeladd cannot help but smile, as King Sweyn's reaction is well within his expectations and is proof he hasn't yet matched his plan. Confident he can maintain the lead in a battle of wits, he laughs to himself about Floki's unimpressed face. Just as he thinks he controls the battle and all his pieces are in place, King Sweyn continues on to say that they must discuss those in the land that lack the proper fear and reverence for him, who have now twice rebuffed his heralds. He says that they are to pull the seed of rebellion threatening their new lands from the earth by force before they can take root, by invading Wales in the coming spring to show them the strength of a true king. Askeladd cannot help making a shocked facial expression at the news; it is noticed by Floki. As King Sweyn continues distributing lands and riches, Floki stands behind him. King Sweyn tells him Askeladd seems unfazed to him, but Floki insists Askeladd was briefly disconcerted, bolting upright when he heard the king say "Wales." He tells the king to keep in mind there might be some weakness of Askeladd's to be found there. At their table, Askeladd tells Thorkell to stop scarfing down his food, as it's unbecoming. With his mouth full, Thorkell replies he is showing his thanks to the gods of prosperity. Askeladd asks if he intends to grow even more. While he drinks, eats and seems unconcerned on the surface, he furiously tries to determine what King Sweyn is plotting. He first thinks that he knows about his connection to Wales, but then rationalizes that he can't, as he's never told Floki about it, and that the king also wouldn't mobilize all of his forces just to punish him. Even if it is a coincidence, it however does not matter, as Wales will still be set to the torch the next spring. Askeladd sifts through his options. He cannot have Prince Canute start a rebellion, as the differences in strengths are still too great, they still need time to sway the chieftains to their side, and Wales would still end up a battleground. In the end, he cannot count on battle, and the only strength he could count on is Thorkell's five hundred men. Thorkell points out that Wales is where Askeladd went when he was on his tail. He asks him what kind of trick he pulled there and asks why the Welsh would take the side of a Dane like him. Askeladd considers, then tells Thorkell the truth: his mother's grave is in Wales, as that land is his home and country. Thorkell is surprised and asks if that means his slave mother was Welsh. Askeladd confirms and says that while the land is poor, the people are rich in pride and spirit and that his mother loved it. Thorkell says that's a shame. Askeladd wonders, out loud, why it is that he always runs out of luck in the worst possible situations. As the herald calls Askeladd forward, Askeladd asks Thorkell not to tell anyone what he just told him. As he approaches King Sweyn, Askeladd keeps thinking of what he should do now to protect his land from the barbarous fools. Canute, standing on the dais near King Sweyn, knows Askeladd holds some connection to Wales and deduces he must be unnerved by the news of its coming invasion. The herald states that for rescuing Prince Canute from danger, King Sweyn grants Askeladd fifty pounds of silver. King Sweyn thanks Askeladd, who replies he gratefully accepts his reward. King Sweyn adds that he is looking forward to Askeladd's valour in their upcoming invasion of Wales. Askeladd takes this to mean the conniving king did know about his connection to Wales after all. Still kneeling, Askeladd begs to be forgiven for speaking his mind aloud, but nevertheless asks the king if the conquest of Wales is really the wisest decision. King Sweyn and Canute look back at Askeladd, wide-eyed.

Characters in Order of Appearance

 * Askeladd
 * Floki
 * Sweyn
 * Canute
 * Thorkell
 * Gunnar
 * Thorfinn